We are proud to share that we were asked to contribute to the May 2013 issue of Drug Development & Delivery magazine. In the resulting article, SKIM Senior Project Manager, Jemma Lampkin, and Chief Methodology Office, Gerard Loosschilder, how to deal with uncertainty by utilizing Monte Carlo-based forecasting.
Monte Carlo-Based Forecasting: How to Deal With Uncertainty
Imagine that you have just wrapped up the Phase II trial of your new drug. The results are promising, yet the launch is several years out. R&D costs are significant, and healthcare budgets are under pressure. Your CEO is expressing concerns about critical success factors like FDA approval, potential changes of payer policies, and a chance that competition beats you to market. A market forecast may help your business decide whether to continue with the development. Yet, when so many factors going into the forecast are uncertain, there is doubt surrounding the value of conducting a forecast at all. Before you know it, conditions may change, the forecast could be rendered invalid, and you could be forced to start anew. But why not turn uncertainty into a virtue?
In this paper, we show how Monte Carlo-based forecasts are better at handling uncertainties, turning them into valuable tools for product managers and marketers engaged in strategic business planning.