Predicting the success of your future products

Today’s shifting market dynamics place even greater pressure on the accuracy of demand forecasts. Pharmaceutical commercial sales/demand forecasts hold the keys to critical R&D, marketing, supply chain, and resourcing decisions.

Many leading pharmaceutical companies are turning to SKIM to improve their approach to data-driven decision making. SKIM Pharma Forecast delivers a more accurate demand forecast by combining advanced analytics techniques and decision behavior insights.

Advanced analytics

Your company likely has access to vast amounts of data sources that can help predict potential market share and product uptake. Our data science experts have built SKIM Pharma Forecast to integrate primary and/or secondary data sets, while also replicating the reality of market shifts. This proprietary forecast model is rooted in 40-years of choice modeling expertise and is proven result in a more accurate and reliable forecast.

Healthcare decision behavior

We also recognize the increasing complexity of today’s healthcare decision journeys. Physicians, patients and payers all influence treatment decisions. How and where these stakeholder influence the prescribing behavior is key to developing an accurate forecast. Our in-depth understanding of indication areas, combined with decision behavior knowledge enables us to closely replicate treatment decision dynamics. This behavioral approach adds to the accuracy of the market potential, preference share and adoption predictions.

SKIM Pharma Forecast tackles questions like:

Predicting market share and sales potential

  • How big is the market for our product and how will this evolve over time?
  • What is the realistic potential market share for this product and what factors affect my share?
  • What opportunities exist to increase our potential market share (e.g. clinical trials, patient influence etc.)?

Influencing prescribing and decision behavior

  • What are the most important factors that influence prescribing behavior and drive product uptake?
  • Which target groups influence treatment decisions and what are the drivers and barriers for these decisions?

Improving competitive strategies

  • What is the sales impact of, and how should we respond to, shift in the competitive market (e.g. new competitors, label extensions, etc.)?
  • What is the best strategy to future-proof our position as the market continues to shift?

What outcomes can you expect from SKIM Pharma Forecast?

  • Accuracy

    SKIM delivers a more holistic and realistic demand forecast. The size and future potential of market share considers market dynamics, the competitive context and decision behavior of all stakeholders (patients, HCPs and payers).
    Our proprietary forecast model mimic’s market reality and combines these hybrid data sources for a more accurate prediction. The result is more reliable R&D, marketing, supply chain, and resourcing decisions.

  • Actionability

    Receive specific go-to-market strategy recommendations including priority target groups, drivers and barriers to product uptake and how/where you can best influence future prescribing behavior.
    SKIM’s approach to insights activation improves stakeholder alignment and shared decision making.

  • Agility

    Our forecast model offers the unique ability to predict the impact of future competitors and changes in the competitive landscape.
    Equipped with these future insights allows companies to maintain a competitive edge.

How does SKIM Pharma Forecast work?

We work closely with clients to customize the best research approach based on the questions, budget and timeline at hand. Our suite of research services includes quantitative, qualitative and advanced predictive modelling methodologies.

  • Qualitative exploration includes techniques such as in-depth stakeholder interviews​, patient research and online discussion boards
  • Quantitative product potential assessment includes techniques such as ‘in the moment’ mobile patient cases​, patient allocation exercises​, clickable product profiles and choice-based conjoint exercises
  • Advanced analytics and predictive modelling includes techniques such Hierarchical Bayes, Monte Carlo simulations​, data integration of historical & Epi data integration​, and decision influence modelling​

 We believe the power of a successful forecast is in the collaboration –making sure all stakeholders are on board and aligned on assumptions- , as well as flexibility to be able to adapt the forecast along the way to product launch

Turning SKIM Pharma Forecast insights into action

Our strategic approach to pharmaceutical demand forecasts ensures maximum impact for your team. From predictive forecast simulation models to interactive workshops, we offer a variety of tools and formats to drive insights activation.

  • Interactive simulation model – SKIM’s proprietary forecast model enables exploration of predictive ‘what-if’ scenarios and subgroup analysis. The predictive forecast model is designed to maximize the ROI of the original research by providing long-term value – inputs can be adjusted as assumptions change over time.
  • Activation workshops – interactive cross-stakeholder sessions aimed at understanding the forecasting results and brainstorming about the best way(s) forward.
  • Wargaming – interactive sessions involving multiple stakeholders, which take the results further, by not only thinking about actions to be taken, but also understanding and anticipating competitor responses.

What clients are saying about SKIM Pharma Forecast?

When preparing to launch a new treatment for Ischemic Stroke, Boehringer Ingelheim turned to SKIM for insights to inform their supply chain strategy. SKIM recommended a holistic approach to forecast future sales volumes.

We integrated several decision makers’ perspectives (pharmacists and stroke physicians), along with historical sales data of current treatments. This data-fusion approach resulted in a more accurate and flexible simulation model that predicted volumes of current and future products over time.

When asked about the impact of the SKIM forecasting study, Global Marketing Team Lead Established Products at Boehringer Ingelheim, commented:

“The project resulted in an adaptation of our supply strategy and production capacities.

SKIM a provided excellent support throughout a rather complex Forecasting study involving various specialists across eight diverse markets. We had strong collaboration throughout, finding manageable solutions along the way.

The final deliverable was extremely well designed and accompanied by a presentation that simplified the potential intricacies, providing a realistic view of the future marketplace.”